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Existing-Home Sales Decline in Economic Uncertainty

Tuesday, December 23rd, 2008

WASHINGTON , December 23, 2008

Existing-home sales weakened against a backdrop of an eroding economy, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 8.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 4.49 million units in November from a downwardly revised level of 4.91 million in October, and are 10.6 percent below the 5.02 million-unit pace in November 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected a decline. “The quickly deteriorating conditions in the job market, stock market, and consumer confidence in October and November have knocked down home sales to another level. We hope the home sales impact from the stock market crash turns out to be short-lived, as was the case in 1987 and 2001,” he said.

“It is, therefore, imperative to provide incentives for homebuyers to get back into the market. It also depends on how effectively Congress and the new administration can help facilitate the short sales process and unclog the mortgage pipeline – impediments remain for some buyers with good credit,” Yun said.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.09 percent in November from 6.20 percent in October; the rate was 6.21 percent in November 2007. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year rate fell to 5.19 percent – the lowest on record since the series began in 1971.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said it’s crucial to enact sufficient housing stimulus to spark an economic recovery. “We need more than low interest rates to encourage enough buyers to enter the market and meaningfully draw down inventory, which would stabilize home prices – that, in turn, would help the economy to recover,” he said.

“We should extend the first-time buyer tax credit to all homebuyers and eliminate the repayment feature, and make permanent the higher loan limits that are vital in high-cost markets – the faster we do this, the faster housing and the economy can recover,” McMillan said.

McMillan said NAR is grateful that the Treasury, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Federal Reserve have been working to bring interest rates down on most mortgages to historic lows.

Total housing inventory at the end of November rose 0.1 percent to 4.20 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 11.2-month supply² at the current sales pace, up from a 10.3-month supply in October.

Despite an overall softening in sales, there has been a solid trend of rising activity in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida markets. “Sales are rising only in areas with large numbers of distressed properties as bargain hunters take advantage of discounted home prices,” Yun said.

The national median existing-home price³ for all housing types was $181,300 in November, down 13.2 percent from November 2007 when the median was $208,800. There remains a significant downward distortion in the current price from a large number of distress sales at discounted prices; the median is where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

Yun cautioned that there will be negative consequences if housing stimulus is delayed. “Falling home prices would lead to faster contraction in consumer spending and further deterioration in bank balance sheets. More importantly, falling home values would lead to higher loan defaults, including those recently modified distressed mortgages.”

Single-family home sales fell 8.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in November from a level of 4.37 million in October, and are 8.8 percent below a 4.41 million-unit pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $180,800 in November, down 12.8 percent from November 2007.

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 13.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 470,000 units in November from 540,000 in October, and are 23.1 percent below the 611,000-unit pace in November 2007. The median existing condo price4 was $185,400 in November, down 15.5 percent from a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast dropped 12.0 percent to an annual pace of 730,000 in November, and are 18.0 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $257,700, down 0.1percent from November 2007.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 7.4 percent in November to a pace of 1.00 million and are 16.0 percent below November 2007. The median price in the Midwest was $142,400, down 11.2 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales dropped 10.9 percent to an annual pace of 1.64 million in November, and are 17.6 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $154,500, which is 10.6 percent lower than November 2007.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.12 million in November but are 17.9 percent higher than November 2007. The median price in the West was $242,500, down 25.5 percent from a year ago.

For more information, please visit: http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata

Housing Prices Fall Below Replacement Costs

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

Housing consultancy Global Insight reports that nationwide, housing prices are now 3.8 percent undervalued, based on total market value. It says values fell at a faster pace in the third quarter after stabilizing earlier in the year.

According to Global Insight’s calculations, prices are now 6.5 percent below their 2007 peak. They fell at a 6.9 percent annual pace affecting 241 of the 330 metropolitan areas analyzed by Global Insight. That’s up from 150 metro areas affected in the second quarter.

Contraction is most severe in the Southeast and Southwest with only the Pacific Northwest remaining overvalued, Global Insight says.

Home prices fell more than 10 percent in the third quarter in nine central California communities. The Central Valley communities of Merced, Stockton, and Modesto have seen property values fall to less than half their 2005 value. Twenty-nine metro areas in California, Florida, and Nevada – at one time among the most overvalued – have seen price declines in excess of 30 percent. Similar steep price drops are occurring in Michigan, northeast Ohio, the southern metro areas from Charlotte to Atlanta, as well as in New England.

“Weak economic conditions and wary consumers continue to hold the housing market back. Although many areas are seeing home sales increase, it is largely due to foreclosure homes being snapped up at significantly discounted prices. As the inventory of these homes is removed from the market, prices will remain on a downward path,” predicts Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist and manager of Global Insight’s Regional Real Estate Service.

Source: Global Insight (12/03/2008)

New home sales unexpectedly soar 2.7 percent

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

Meanwhile, median price of a new home drops to four-year low, $218,400

Breaking news

Associated Press

updated 10:36 a.m. ET Oct. 27, 2008

WASHINGTON - Sales of new homes recorded an unexpected increase in September as median home prices dropped to the lowest level in four years, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

Sales of new single-family homes rose by 2.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 homes, Commerce said. Economists had expected sales would drop from the August level.

The median price of a new home sold in September declined by 9.1 percent from a year ago to $218,400, the lowest price level since September 2004, a period when home prices were rising rapidly as the country experienced a five-year housing boom.

The surprising increase in September sales still left them 33.1 percent below the level of a year ago as the country is battered by the worst slump in housing in decades.

The report on a rise in new home sales followed news last week that sales of existing homes rose in September by 5.5 percent, the largest monthly gain in more than five years.

Analysts: No bottom — yet          
Analysts are not convinced that the sales increases are signaling a bottom for the housing market. They note that the September gains came before the latest upheavals in financial markets which have raised new worries about the overall state of the economy.

Many analysts believe the country has already entered a recession. They are forecasting significant increases in job losses which will make it even harder to mount a sustained rebound in housing.

New home sales fell by 21.4 percent in the Northeast and were down 5.8 percent in the Midwest. However, sales rose by a sharp 22.7 percent in the West, a region of the country which has seen some of the biggest declines in prices, a development which has spurred sales. Sales were up 0.7 percent in the South.

The rise in sales left a total of 394,000 unsold new homes on the market at the end of September, down a record 25.4 percent from the number of unsold homes on the market at the end of September 2007.

Builders have been sharply cutting back on production, trying to get inventories more in line with sales.

Even with the latest drop in total unsold new homes, the inventory represents a 10.4 months supply at the September sales pace, still a historically high level.

The inventory of unsold existing homes is also remaining near historic highs as that market is being increased by a record wave of home foreclosures.

The 2.7 percent rise in sales for September new home sales followed a big 12.6 percent drop in August, which was revised sharply lower from the government’s initial estimate. Sales in July had risen by 3.6 percent. 

Wake Up America—Home Prices ARE Falling

Thursday, October 30th, 2008
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Am I not doing my job? Or is nobody listening? How is it possible, in the midst of the worst credit crisis in history, which is predicated on one of the biggest housing crashes in history, that nearly half of all Americans still don’t get that home prices are falling? 

A new survey from Zillow.com finds that a full 49 percent of those surveyed think their home has either retained its value or even gained value in the past year. According to Zillow, 74 percent of all U.S. homes have lost value in the last year. Don’t believe Zillow? How about the National Association of Realtors: Home prices down 9 percent nationwide in the past year. How about the government’s Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight: Home Prices down 5.9 percent since last year. How about any real estate agent in the phone book??

Ok, I get it, all real estate is local, and a lot of folks simply believe that those national numbers don’t apply to their neighborhood. Yep, there’s some truth to that, there are some neighborhoods in some cities that are still strong. But not half the homes in the country!!!

Who’s most deluded? Many of you folks in the Northeast. Apparently about 55 percent of you think your home would sell for the same or more than it would a year ago. Zillow says 71 percent of homes in the Northeast have lost value. Thankfully Westerners are a little more grounded in their property valuations…but not all of you! Despite the fact that home prices in California, Nevada and Arizona have fallen upwards of 40 percent regionally, 35 percent of Westerners think they haven’t lost a dime in their homes. According to Zillow, 85 percent of all homes in the West have lost value.

  • Home Prices Plunge 16.6% in August
  • New-Home Sales Fall Again in August
  • Banks Reluctant to Redo Ailing Mortgages

    So what’s up with the numbers? Clearly Americans get that something bad in the economy is going on. Consumer sentiment is in the toilet and consumer spending is swirling around the same venue. Are we all so wrapped up in the credit crisis and the stock market mayhem that we forgot from whence all this madness was born, i.e. housing??

    Look, I’m all for optimism, and yes, I do think the media can tend to go a bit overboard in reporting a crisis, but all indicators suggest we are in a housing crisis. Anyone has a right to think anything they want about their home, but any real estate agent will tell you, one of the biggest barriers to home sales and a housing recovery is the seller’s over-inflated perception of the home price.

    Price a home correctly, even aggressively, in today’s market and it will sell, and that’s the road to recovery my friends, not listing your home for sale right in the heart of la la land.

    Questions?  Comments?  document.write(”<a href=’mailto:”+”RealtyCheck”+”@”+”cnbc.com’>”); document.write(”RealtyCheck”+”@”+”cnbc.com”); RealtyCheck@cnbc.com document.write(’</a>’);

    © 2008 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
  • Pending Home Sales Rise As Buyers Grab Bargains

    Wednesday, October 8th, 2008

    Pending sales of existing U.S. homes unexpectedly jumped in August to the highest level in over a year, data from a real estate trade group showed on Wednesday.

    AP

     

    The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in June, rose 7.4 percent in August to 93.4 from an updwardly revised index of 87.0 in July.

    The August reading was 8.8 percent higher than a year earlier, and the highest level since 101.4 in June 2007.

    Economists polled by Reuters ahead of the report were expecting pending home sales to drop by 1.8 percent.

    The association’s senior economist Lawrence Yun said home buyers responded to improved affordability, with home prices low and mortgage rates down after the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    Meanwhile, applications for U.S. residential mortgages climbed last week from the lowest level in a month as home loan rates declined.

    Lending conditions remained tight with global financial markets in chaos, crimping mortgage activity, analysts said.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity rose 2.2 percent in the week ending Oct. 3 to 465.5 after falling 23 percent the prior week to the lowest level since the end of August.

    Mortgage rates declined last week.

    As investors rushed to the safety of U.S. Treasury securities, yields fell on the debt, which is used as a peg for home loan rates.

    Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.99 percent, down from 6.07 percent the prior week.

    The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of applications for loan refinancings rose 0.9 percent last week to 1,345.8 after tumbling 34.7 percent a week earlier.

    The gauge of loan requests for home purchases climbed 3.2 percent to 314.5 after dropping by 10.9 percent.

    Major U.S. stock indexes tumbled even after a $700 billion U.S. government rescue program was enacted on Friday and the Federal Reserve this week unveiled new steps to improve financial system liquidity.

    The programs are intended to boost confidence and the willingness of financial institutions to lend.

    Unemployment is at a five-year high and expected to keep rising, meantime, which could dampen demand for home purchases, analysts said.

    Copyright 2008 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

    Financial Giants Fall Victim to Mortgage Crisis

    Monday, September 15th, 2008

    Daily Real Estate News  |  September 15, 2008

    Financial Giants Fall Victim to Mortgage Crisis

    Weighed down by losses in the U.S. mortgage crisis, the stability of major financial institutions continues to be shaky. On Monday, U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. filed for bankruptcy and Bank of America announced that it would be buying struggling Merrill Lynch.

    Lehman’s is the largest casualty, so far, in the past year in the ongoning credit crisis. Lehman filed for bankruptcy on Monday following a failed attempt over the weekend to find a buyer.

    Concerns over the stability of other firms also looms, particularly after the U.S. government’s decision not to provide any bailout for Lehman. In March the government provided financial backing for JPMorgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns, the first big bank to fold under the mortgage crisis.

    Also on Monday, No.2 U.S. bank giant, Bank of America announced it would be buying Merrill Lynch in a $50 billion deal.

    “Acquiring one of the premier wealth management, capital markets, and advisory companies is a great opportunity for our shareholders,” Bank of America Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ken Lewis said in a statement. “Together, our companies are more valuable because of the synergies in our businesses.”

    The buyout is expected to close in the first quarter of 2009.

    Source: Reuter News, Ellis Mnyandu (9/15/08) and Associated Press, Madlen Read and Tim Paradis(9/15/08) 

    U.S. seizes Fannie and Freddie

    Monday, September 8th, 2008

    Treasury chief Paulson unveils historic government takeover of twin mortgage buyers. Top executives are out.By David Ellis, CNNMoney.com staff writerLast Updated: September 7, 2008: 8:28 PM EDT

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Federal officials on Sunday unveiled an extraordinary takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, putting the government in charge of the twin mortgage giants and the $5 trillion in home loans they back.

    The move, which extends as much as $200 billion in Treasury support to the two companies, marks Washington’s most dramatic attempt yet to shore up the nation’s housing market, which is suffering from record foreclosures and falling prices.

    The sweeping plan, announced by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and James Lockhart, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, places the two companies into a “conservatorship” to be overseen by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Under conservatorship, the government would temporarily run Fannie and Freddie until they are on stronger footing.

    “A failure [of Fannie and Freddie] would affect the ability of Americans to get home loans, auto loans and other consumer credit and business finance,” Paulson said at a press conference in Washington. “And a failure would be harmful to economic growth and job creation.”

    Fannie (FNMFortune 500) and Freddie (FREFortune 500), which were created by the U.S. government, have been badly hurt in the last year by the sharp decline in home prices as well as rising mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. All told, the two firms have racked up about $12 billion in losses since last summer.

    On Sunday, officials stressed that both Fannie and Freddie will be open for business on Monday morning, although the firms will have undergone a dramatic facelift by then.

    Freddie CEO Richard Syron and Fannie CEO Daniel Mudd will no longer run the agencies, while the FHFA will assume control of the boards. Regulators took care not to foist blame on the two executives, adding that they would stick around to help with the transition.

    Syron and Mudd will be replaced by two finance veterans charged with restoring the mortgage titans to health. Herb Allison, the former chairman and CEO of pension provider TIAA-CREF, will head Fannie Mae. Allison formerly served as president of Merrill Lynch.

    David Moffett, who served as vice chairman and chief financial officer of U.S. Bancorp until early 2007 and then joined the Carlyle Group private-equity firm as a senior adviser, will take over Freddie Mac.

    At the same time, dividends on both common and preferred shares will be eliminated in an effort to conserve about $2 billion annually. All of the firms’ lobbying and political activities will be halted immediately and charitable activities reviewed.

    In addition, the Treasury Department announced a series of moves targeted at providing relief to both housing and financial markets.

    Paulson said Treasury would boost housing by purchasing mortgage-backed securities from Freddie and Fannie, as well as offering to lend money to the companies and the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks. The home loan banks advance funds to more than 8,000 member banks. (Read what Paulson said.)

    The Treasury, with fellow regulator FHFA, will also buy preferred stock in Fannie and Freddie to provide security to the companies’ debt holders and bolster housing finance.

    The government, in agreeing to backstop the firms, said it would receive $1 billion in each company’s senior preferred stock. The government will also receive a quarterly dividend payment and the right to own 79.9% of each company.

    How we got here

    Sunday’s announcement brings an end to months of speculation about the fate of the two firms. Shares of Fannie and Freddie, which have fallen more than 80% as of the end of Friday’s session, were hammered this summer among concerns they would need to raise additional funds to cover future losses or need to be taken over by its federal regulator. Investors feared that either step would reduce or wipe out the value of current shareholders’ stakes.

    In mid-July, the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve announced steps in to make funds available to the firms if necessary and Congress approved the sweeping proposals later that month.

    Shortly thereafter, regulators stepped up their review of Fannie and Freddie. Paulson announced in August that he had tapped Wall Street firm Morgan Stanley (MSFortune 500) to help him examine the firms.

    Sources familiar with the matter told Fortune that Morgan Stanley had determined that both Freddie and Fannie faced “meaningful” capital issues before deciding last week that government intervention was necessary. Morgan Stanley has called a firm-wide meeting on Monday morning to explain the deal.

    Officials ruled out a capital infusion - a less drastic option than convervatorship - after considering questions such as whether the government would have to keep putting money in and how best Treasury officials could protect taxpayers, according to one of the sources.

    In the end, the route taken amounts to “a timeout, not a liquidation,” says the source. “Conservatorship leaves all options open for the next administration.”

    Following an exhaustive review, FHFA’s Lockhart said Sunday that the two companies could not continue to operate without taking “significant action.”

    Fannie and Freddie have become virtually the only source of funding for banks and other home lenders looking to make home loans. Their ability to do so is crucial to the recovery of the battered home market and the broader U.S. economy.

    The two firms buy loans, attach a guarantee, then sell securities backed by the loans’ income stream. All told, they own or back $5.4 trillion worth of home debt - half the mortgage debt in the country.

    Reaction to the news

    The Treasury-FHFA plan, which was widely anticipated after financial markets closed on Friday, drew praise from regulators, lawmakers and some market experts.

    President Bush called the move “critical” to the housing market recovery. “Americans should be confident that the actions taken today will strengthen our ability to weather the housing correction and are critical to returning the economy to stronger sustained growth in the future,” he said.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who along with Paulson has led efforts to help get the U.S. housing market and the broader economy back on track, endorsed the move by Lockhart and Paulson.

    “These necessary steps will help to strengthen the U.S. housing market and promote stability in our financial markets,” Bernanke said in a statement.

    Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a member of the Senate Banking Committee, said that Paulson had “threaded the needle just right” with the plan, noting that it will likely be met with praise from other lawmakers.

    At first blush, Wall Street seemed encouraged by the news, although the true test will come when financial markets around the globe open Monday. Pimco’s Bill Gross, a widely followed bond fund manager, said that the Freddie-Fannie plan was the right move.

    “This is a significant step and almost exactly what we had hoped for,” Gross told CNNMoney.com Sunday.

    In addition to confirming the government’s sovereign credit rating, Standard & Poor’s affirmed its sterling AAA rating on both Fannie Freddie on the news, adding that its outlook for the two firms is stable.

    Unanswered questions

    The cost of the government intervention remains unclear however. Experts argue that it will depend in large part on the structure of the rescue, the direction of home prices and mortgage default rates.

    Still it seems almost certain it will run into the billions and will most likely eclipse such other high-profile government bailouts including than the Federal Reserve’s $29 billion backing of Bear Stearns assets when it was taken over by J.P. Morgan Chase.

    Paulson said that the cost to taxpayers would largely depend on the future financial performance of Fannie and Freddie.

    Another unintended yet unavoidable consequence may be the impact to the nation’s banks.

    Some of the nation’s largest financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase (JPMFortune 500) and Sovereign Bancorp (SOVFortune 500) own a big chunk of the estimated $36 billion in preferred shares of Fannie and Freddie, according to research published last month by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, an investment bank that specializes in financial firms. Those stakes are at risk of being wiped out as a result of Sunday’s announcement.

    Top banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve as well as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said in a joint statement Sunday that a limited number of smaller institutions have significant preferred share holdings in Fannie and Freddie. They added they are prepared to work with these institutions to come up with a plan should they need to raise capital.

    Still, the rescue of Fannie and Freddie could go a long way toward its intended aim - bringing stability to the housing market while making it easier for consumers to obtain affordable mortgages.

    –CNNMoney.com senior writer Tami Luhby and Fortune editor at large Patricia Sellers contributed to this report. To top of page

     

     

    NAR: Summary of Key Provisions of H.R 3221- The Housing Stimulus Bill (as of 7/30/08)

    Monday, August 4th, 2008

    H.R. 3221, the “Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008,” passed the House on July 23, 2008, by a vote of 272-152. On Saturday, July 26, 2008, the Senate passed the bill by a vote of 72-13. The President signed the bill on July 30, 2008. The bill includes the following provisions:

    • GSE Reform – including a strong independent regulator, and permanent conforming loan limits up to the greater of $417,000 or 115% local area median home price, capped at $625,500. The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
      View 2009 FHA and GSE loan limit estimates (PDF)
    • FHA Reform – including permanent FHA loan limits at the greater of $271,050 or 115% of local area median home price, capped at $625,500; streamlined processing for FHA condos; reforms to the HECM program, and reforms to the FHA manufactured housing program. The downpayment requirement on FHA loans will go up to 3.5% (from 3%). The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
      View 2009 FHA and GSE loan limit estimates (PDF)
      FHA Reform Chart (PDF)
    • FHA foreclosure rescue – development of a refinance program for homebuyers with problematic subprime loans. Lenders would write down qualified mortgages to 85% of the current appraised value and qualified borrowers would get a new FHA 30-year fixed mortgage at 90% of appraised value. Borrowers would have to share 50% of all future appreciation with FHA. The loan limit for this program is $550,440 nationwide. Program is effective on October 1, 2008.
      FHA Foreclosure Rescue Chart
    • VA loan limits – temporarily increases the VA home loan guarantee loan limits to the same level as the Economic Stimulus limits through December 31, 2008.
    • Risk-based pricing – puts a moratorium on FHA using risk-based pricing for one year. This provision is effective from October 1, 2008 through September 30, 2009.
    • GSE Stabilization – includes language proposed by the Treasury Department to authorize Treasury to make loans to and buy stock from the GSEs to make sure that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could not fail.
    • Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority – authorizes $10 billion in mortgage revenue bonds for refinancing subprime mortgages.
    • National Affordable Housing Trust Fund – Develops a Trust Fund funded by a percentage of profits from the GSEs. In its first years, the Trust Fund would cover costs of any defaulted loans in FHA foreclosure program. In out years, the Trust Fund would be used for the development of affordable housing.
    • LIHTC – Modernizes the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program to make it more efficient.
    • Loan Originator Requirements – Strengthens the existing state-run nationwide mortgage originator licensing and registration system (and requires a parallel HUD system for states that fail to participate). Federal bank regulators will establish a parallel registration system for FDIC-insured banks. The purpose is to prevent fraud and require minimum licensing and education requirements. The bill exempts those who only perform real estate brokerage activities and are licensed or registered by a state, unless they are compensated by a lender, mortgage broker, or other loan originator.

     Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
    Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
    DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
    1-800-874-6500

    Real Estate In Maggie Valley

    Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008

    Well here we are nearing the end of July 2008 which historically is the “busy” season for real estate in Maggie Valley and Haywood County North Carolina. I must point out our season extends from spring through the fall and the “color” season, but typically mid summer is our rush period.

    We have been informed by our in-house mortgage broker that Fannie Mae is now classifying Haywood County, NC a “declining market”. We are not alone. The majority of the country fits this classification. We have held onto the fact that we are a resort market and a destination place in the southeast and our market has not been affected like other markets across the country. I do believe that is what has kept the sales that we have had this year. If you have kept up with this blog you will know we try to keep you informed, but also try to keep the topics positive during such a rough time in our country’s history. With any negative news we can always find a positive or golden lining. It seems to be getting tougher to do that. I will say that this is the first time that we have publicly discussed our frustration with this market.

    There has been some good news in the last few days; oil prices continue to plummet although it is funny how when they go up, gas shoots up immediately, but when oil comes down gas tends to hang out at the higher levels for a while. If you did not see the news today congress has passed the Mortgage Reform Bill and have passed it on to the senate. President Bush had threatened a veto, but he has backed off and says he will sign the bill if it makes it to his desk. Maybe Washington is starting to figure it out that a lot of Americans need help. I will not go into the benefits of the bill in this post because I have not found time to read all 700! pages of the bill. You have to be kidding me! You have to wonder how much fluff is built into the bill for specific representatives personal gain. I am sorry, but I do not trust any of them. (see the great email that I received today at the bottom of the post. It will make you think)

    Bottom line our market here is not good. We have historically high inventories of listings, dropping prices, and a general lack of buyers. We have homes that we have offered a bonus to the seller, a bonus to the buyers agent, pay the mortgage for a year, etc, etc and nothing! Not even a bite. It gets difficult to explain to sellers why they are not getting showings. We have great tools at our disposal and we like to think more than most we use them. I had a client in the office yesterday wondering what we have to do to get their property sold. A quick review of showing statistics from Centralized Showing Service who schedules our showing revealed that in the price range that the home was listed there have been ZERO showings in that price range in the last 2.5 months. These tells us that it is not a marketing issue, but a lack of buyers issue.

    Where do we go from here at Realty World Heritage? We continue taking one step at a time day by day. When other agents and companies are heading in one direction we go in the other. When others complain about the market we praise it (with the exception of a few vent lines in this post :)) You can use 100 cliches’; “When the going gets tough the tough get going” comes straight to mind. We at Realty World Heritage continue to look at ways at growing the company in a down market. We are trying to think outside the box and stay ahead of the trend and the down market. We continue to add to the website to attract the potential buyers that are out there (the National Association of Realtors’ tells us that 82% of homebuyers start their search online). We are moving towards much more video in the near future. I would like to be speaking to you via video clips in the next month and make this whole blog a bit more interactive. We have to grow to survive and we are very focused on the future. Our agents, god bless them show up and work! We have and are committed to a small agent force that works! We are not about the numbers, we are about quality. We thank them for their hard work and we feel that all of them will survive this market. I do not believe all other firms can say all of their agents will make it through. We strive to be different and that difference may be the strength to pull even the weakest agent out of this.

    This was a long one, but I hope you have a better understanding of the private thoughts of a real estate company in a tough market. We stay excited for the future and know this thing is going to turn and we work, work, work everyday. It is all we know how to do!

    Email of the day:

      How many zeros in a billion?
    This is too true to be funny.

    The next time you hear a politician use the
    word ‘billion’ in a casual manner, think about

    whether you want the ‘politicians’ spending


    YOUR tax money.

    A billion is a difficult number to comprehend,
    but one advertising agency did a good job of
    putting that figure into some perspective in

    one of it’s releases.

    A.
    A billion seconds ago it was 1959.

    B.
    A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.

    C.
    A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

    D.
    A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth.

    E.
    A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.


    While this thought is still fresh in our brain…
    let’s take a look at New Orleans …
    It’s amazing what you can learn with some simple division.

    Louisiana Senator,
    Mary Landrieu (D)
    is presently asking Congress for
    250 BILLION DOLLARS
    to rebuild New Orleans . Interesting number…
    what does it mean?

    A.
    Well… if you are one of the 484,674 residents of New Orleans
    (every man, woman, and child)
    you

    each get $516,528.

    B.
    Or… if you have one of the 188,251 homes in
    New Orleans , your home gets $1,329,787.

    C.
    Or… if you are a family of four…
    your family gets $2,066,012.

    Washington , D. C


    < HELLO! >
    Are all your calculators broken??

    Accounts Receivable Tax
    Building Permit Tax

    CDL License Tax

    Cigarette Tax

    Corporate Income Tax

    Dog License Tax

    Federal Income Tax < BR>Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)
    Fishing License Tax
    Food License Tax
    Fuel Permit Tax
    Gasoline Tax
    Hunting License Tax
    Inheritance Tax
    Inventory Tax
    IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax)
    IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)
    Liquor Tax
    Luxury Tax
    Marriage License Tax
    Medicare Tax
    Property Tax
    Real Estate Tax
    Service charge taxes
    Social Security Tax
    Road Usage Tax (Truckers)
    Sales Taxes
    Recreational Vehicle Tax
    School Tax
    State Income Tax
    State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)
    Telephone Federal Excise Tax
    Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax
    Telephone Fe dermal, State and Local Surcharge Tax
    Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax
    Telephone Recurring and Non-recurring Charges Tax
    Telephone State and Local Tax
    Telephone Usage Charge

    Tax
    Utility Tax
    Vehicle License Registration Tax
    Vehicle Sales Tax
    Watercraft Registration Tax
    Well Permit Tax
    Workers Compensation Tax

    STILL THINK THIS IS FUNNY?

    Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago…
    and our nation was the most prosperous in the world.

    We had absolutely no national debt…
    We had the largest middle class in the world…
    and Mom stayed home to raise the kids.

    What happened?
    Can you spell ‘politicians!’

    And I still have to
    press ‘1′
    for English.

    I hope this goes around the
    USA
    at least 100 times

    What the heck happened?????


     

     

    Comments About the Housing Market From a Finanical Advisors Point of View

    Thursday, June 26th, 2008
    Pessimism regarding the real estate and stock market seems to be at a very high level recently.  Realtors at their weekly meetings have admitted fear of advising clients to buy a house now, as they fear prices may be going lower.  This is a very encouraging sign from a contrarian point of view. Whereas the last 1-2  years were filled with complacency and the gradual lowering of prices every few months, it seems we are getting to a point of outright capitulation, giving up, throwing up, and throwing in the towel, either by foreclosure, short sale, or regarding investment portfolios, its selling at the recent market lows into cash.  All of these actions are guided by emotion, financial necessity, or both.  Historically all these types of actions are what you see at bottoms of market corrections, not tops or the middle.  The bottom line is, unless you are a real estate flipper or stock trader, this time-frame will probably be looked back on as one of the better buying opportunities in history (for long-term investment purposes), especially if you are purchasing a primary residence or long-term vacation home, and a great opportunity to add money to your retirement accounts if you have at least 5 years until retirement (contact a financial advisor for a risk profile before investing).  So remember, emotionally you will feel like buying a home or investing in the stock market is the worst thing you could do when markets are much closer to a low, and you will feel giddy, and want to buy more real estate or invest more in the stock market when they are closer to a near-term high, both the opposite of what you probably should do.  So be careful, but don’t miss the opportunities that may present themselves during these difficult times.  Have a plan, and good luck!
    Quote: Fear is what creates the opportunity, greed is what looses it!
     
    Justin M. Connors, MBA
    Branch Manager
    Financial Advisor
    Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.
    Member FINRA/SIPC
    101 N. Orlando Ave
    Cocoa Beach, Fl 32931
    321.868-0732 800-868-9707
    321.868-0772 Fax
    Justin.Connors@RaymondJames.com
    www.raymondjames.com/cocoabeach