Realty World Heritage
1986 Soco Road (Hwy 19) Maggie Valley, NC 28751
(800) 627-1072
WNCINFO@realtyworldheritage.com

Email Update

Register/Sign In

Property Search

Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Crescenzi: What Home Inventory Plunge Means

Wednesday, December 24th, 2008

The number of unsold new homes fell 34k in November, the most ever. There are now 372k unsold new homes for sale, significantly below the peak of 570k in June 2006.

The level is approaching normal. The supply problem is in the existing home market. It lags but it’s next: the underbuilding of homes relative to population growth will inevitably result in the filling up of those homes, whether through sale or rental–humans need shelter. I would expect inventories to decline at least 500k to 750k in 2009 because of the population/underbuilding issue. At least 500k will disappear from the underbuilding idea and a further 250k (at least) will result from low mortgage rates and incentives from Barack Obama to spur home buying (4.5% mortgages or tax credits or both).

The math on why this is happening is simple: the construction of new homes has fallen below that of household formation. Housing starts have recently been at about 600k annualized, which works out to about 400k new dwellings, because many new starts are restarts–tear downs and such. Birth statistics and Census Bureau data indicate that household formation will on average run at a pace of about 1.2 million in the current year and immediate years ahead, owing to population growth of about 3.0 million.

This means that home inventories–new and existing combined–could fall by at 600k over the next year, depending on the extent of household formation (it slows during recessions, although it is only a delay in the inevitable–kids won’t live home with their parents forever and roommates go their separate ways, eventually). Shelter is obviously a basic need, which makes the inventory call a bankable top-down theme for 2009.

More: Click for Latest Economic coverage

__________

Tony Crescenzi

Tony Crescenzi is the Chief Bond Market Strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC where he advises many of the nation’s top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. Crescenzi makes regular appearances on financial television stations such as CNBC and Bloomberg, and is frequently quoted across the news media. He is also the author of the forthcoming book, “Investing from the Top Down,The Strategic Bond Investor,” and co-author of the 1200-page book “The Money Market.” Crescenzi is a contributor to RealMoney.com.”

A Little Something to Get You In The Christmas Spirit

Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

Tis The Season!

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

The holiday season is in full swing and Chistmas is coming fast! The holidays can be a busy week for real estate in our area. With 5 snowfalls this fall we can only hope for a white Christmas and bunch of visitors in town.  Business continues to be steady although we are historically slow the few weeks leading up to Christmas. If you have not seen interest rates have come WAY down and it seems is helping some to get off the fence. Many of our agents are working hard with buyers who are still looking for deals, but they are working! 2009 is around the corner and if my crystal ball is correct we will see a nice turn around in the real estate market which should be welcome news to sellers and Realtors alike. Now get out and finish your shopping!

Awesome Video!

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

I love YouTube and the videos that you can find on there. We talk a lot to our agents about persistence and not giving up in this tough market. Here is a video of someone who definitely did not give up and used his skills to get the job done. Take a look and you will be amazed!

Real Estate in Haywood County North Carolina

Monday, November 17th, 2008

It has been a bit since I really sat down and expressed what in happening in regards to Real Estate in Haywood County North Carolina. I would like to say that we are taking it all in stride, but I will not lie. It has been a challenge. All year we have been looking towards the next “busy time” that will bring an influx of customers into the mountains to buy that special get-a-way. It started in the Spring, the flowers and trees started to bloom and we said “ok, it is coming. The visitors will be back and the sales will increase, but the market did  not pick up.  So , we said school is not out…When it gets out “they will be back” . Well this went on all Spring, Summer, and now fall. Unfortunately, we never had that “rush” of customers.

I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that the market continued even though it was slow. I know there are agents out there that are having a very tough time. Our company has maintained a steady flow of sales. We are ranked #3 in our county and have had over 80 transactions to date (typically we do 150 or so in a year).  We have about 15 transactions in the pipleline so we are better off than most. That said, it has still been a challenge to get from month to month. When your company is set up with an overhead based on a average of 150 transactions and you only do half of that, it creates a problem. I believe we have been proactive for months and knew that the market would be slow, but nobody knew that the global economy would crumble around us.  

All parts of the economy have been affected, but is there a profession hit harder by this than the 1.2 million Realtors in the US? We hear daily of bailouts for the banks, for other financial sectors, for the automakers, soon the airlines, and on and on. It has been the housing downturn that has caused all this so who do you think is affected the most? Yes, anyone associated with real estate especially the Realtors. Are we asking for a bailout? No way! I do not think it is the way our professionals operate. In good times we are accused of making to much money for doing very little work and well folks it is just not true. This is my “second” profession and I can tell you the professionals in this business work as hard or harder than any. Throw in a housing crisis and we have had to work even harder for little or no pay. We come to work each day and try to find answers to a general lack of buyers. How do we get people off the fence, what incentives do we offer, and how do we reach more potential buyers are just some of the questions that we face.

I hope that the bailout monies make it into the system, the financial markets rebound, and the housing industry rebounds. If it does not the unemployment numbers will go up and there will be many that are not accounted for such as Realtors who are independent contractors and many times are not see as having “real jobs”. Call your local Realtor today and tell them you appreciate them and send them a lead! :) Their families are depending on it!

You Have Got to Be Kidding Me!

Tuesday, September 30th, 2008

Lately, it feels as if we are living a dream in the USA or to be specific a nightmare! What is going on with our country? How did we get here? How did our elected officials allow us to get to this point? As a current events buff since I was a child it is hard to stay away from the news on a daily basis. I like and choose to be informed, but these days it will drive you crazy.

Should we pass the bailout bill? I have listened to so many opinions and some of the brighest minds in this country who are not politicians do not believe it is the right thing to do. Is it the governments job to bail out everyone? Do we not have some responsiblity for getting into this mess and have the responsibility to get out?  Are we creating an ever bigger problem for my kids to deal with? So many questions and fewer answers are currently floating around. 

Can’t we all get along? It was disgusting to see the reaction from both sides of the aisle when the house failed to pass the bill. Whether you are for it or not, the reaction from our “leaders” was appalling. At a time when the country needs leadership our leaders acted like 3 year olds. I know because I have one! The most appalling of them all was the Speaker of the House. Again, the so called “leader” was the most deplorable.  It seems a resignation is in order. What do you think?

GOV. EASLEY ANNOUNCES ADDITIONAL GAS SHIPMENTS HEADED TO NORTH CAROLINA

Thursday, September 25th, 2008
Gov. Mike Easley announced Wednesday (yesterday) evening that substantial additional gasoline supplies have been released to North Carolina.
 
“The major oil companies have agreed to make additional gas supplies available to hard hits areas of our state, particularly western North Carolina,” said Easley.  “We are getting tankers from Wilmington, Tennessee and South Carolina terminals to bring hundreds of thousands of gallons of gas to those most in need.” 
 
The governor said the additional gallons of gas will be available over the next two days.
 
“I am grateful to the oil companies for trying to get gas to our people.  They do not have to make these changes in their delivery routine and I have no power to make them.  They have agreed to do this voluntarily,” Easley said. 
 
“I have a lot of staff working very hard on this and am asking people to be reasonable and cooperative with each other.  Conserve for a few more days and we will be fine.  We are going to continue to work hard to get every possible gallon of gasoline to the locations where it is needed.”
 
The gas shortage that was caused by refinery shutdowns during Hurricanes Gustav and Ike has been worse in rural areas of North Carolina because those areas tend to have more independently-owned gas stations.  The independent stations typically do not have long term contracts for gasoline delivery, while stations that carry major brand names do have contracts.  The independents run out of gas first, consequently it is important that the brand companies have come through with extra fuel for the state.
 
 
SHARE THE “NEWSLINK”
Want to share the “NewsLink” with a friend or colleague?  Sign them up now athttp://www.nccommerce.com/en/TourismServices/PromoteTravelAndTourismIndustry/Newslink/.  Should you have difficulty signing up for the “NewsLink,” contact Publications Director Kathy Prickett at (919) 733-8302 or viakprickett@nccommerce.com.
 
FEEDBACK WELCOME 
The N.C. Division of Tourism, Film & Sports Development is committed to serving North Carolina’s tourism industry.  If you have feedback regarding any of the Division’s programs, let your voice be heard at visitnc@nccommerce.com.

Randy Pausch Last Lecture: Achieving Your Childhood Dreams

Monday, August 4th, 2008

If you have not seen or heard about this video, check it out. It is over an hour long so watch when you have the time. It will be well worth it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji5_MqicxSo

How the New First-Time Buyer Tax Credit Works

Monday, August 4th, 2008
Under the new housing bill, home buyers who have not owned a home in the last three years will be eligible for a tax credit equal to 10 percent of the property up to a maximum of $7,500.Here’s how it works:

 

 

  • The credit is $3,750 for married couples filing separately. Unmarried people who jointly purchase a home will be able to divide the $7,500 credit.
  • This program is actually a loan, which home buyers must repay over 15 years at zero percent interest beginning in the second year after they purchase the home. A home buyer who qualified for the whole credit would pay $500 for 15 years or about $41.67 per month.
  • The credit applies only to homes purchased on or after April 9, 2008, and before July 1, 2009.
  • High-income home buyers don’t qualify: Eligibility begins phasing out for single filers with adjusted income of more than $75,000 and $150,000 for joint filers. It completely phases out at $95,000 for singles and $170,000 for married couples filing jointly.

Source: The Washington Post, Michelle Singletary (07/03/08)

NAR: Summary of Key Provisions of H.R 3221- The Housing Stimulus Bill (as of 7/30/08)

Monday, August 4th, 2008

H.R. 3221, the “Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008,” passed the House on July 23, 2008, by a vote of 272-152. On Saturday, July 26, 2008, the Senate passed the bill by a vote of 72-13. The President signed the bill on July 30, 2008. The bill includes the following provisions:

  • GSE Reform – including a strong independent regulator, and permanent conforming loan limits up to the greater of $417,000 or 115% local area median home price, capped at $625,500. The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
    View 2009 FHA and GSE loan limit estimates (PDF)
  • FHA Reform – including permanent FHA loan limits at the greater of $271,050 or 115% of local area median home price, capped at $625,500; streamlined processing for FHA condos; reforms to the HECM program, and reforms to the FHA manufactured housing program. The downpayment requirement on FHA loans will go up to 3.5% (from 3%). The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
    View 2009 FHA and GSE loan limit estimates (PDF)
    FHA Reform Chart (PDF)
  • FHA foreclosure rescue – development of a refinance program for homebuyers with problematic subprime loans. Lenders would write down qualified mortgages to 85% of the current appraised value and qualified borrowers would get a new FHA 30-year fixed mortgage at 90% of appraised value. Borrowers would have to share 50% of all future appreciation with FHA. The loan limit for this program is $550,440 nationwide. Program is effective on October 1, 2008.
    FHA Foreclosure Rescue Chart
  • VA loan limits – temporarily increases the VA home loan guarantee loan limits to the same level as the Economic Stimulus limits through December 31, 2008.
  • Risk-based pricing – puts a moratorium on FHA using risk-based pricing for one year. This provision is effective from October 1, 2008 through September 30, 2009.
  • GSE Stabilization – includes language proposed by the Treasury Department to authorize Treasury to make loans to and buy stock from the GSEs to make sure that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could not fail.
  • Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority – authorizes $10 billion in mortgage revenue bonds for refinancing subprime mortgages.
  • National Affordable Housing Trust Fund – Develops a Trust Fund funded by a percentage of profits from the GSEs. In its first years, the Trust Fund would cover costs of any defaulted loans in FHA foreclosure program. In out years, the Trust Fund would be used for the development of affordable housing.
  • LIHTC – Modernizes the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program to make it more efficient.
  • Loan Originator Requirements – Strengthens the existing state-run nationwide mortgage originator licensing and registration system (and requires a parallel HUD system for states that fail to participate). Federal bank regulators will establish a parallel registration system for FDIC-insured banks. The purpose is to prevent fraud and require minimum licensing and education requirements. The bill exempts those who only perform real estate brokerage activities and are licensed or registered by a state, unless they are compensated by a lender, mortgage broker, or other loan originator.

 Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
1-800-874-6500